“They don’t make movies like they used to…” is a common refrain from you’ll hear from dorks like me who measure time by Friday release schedules. But that’s not true anymore! They did make movies like they used to, at least in 2023. The best movies released in 2023 were great movies, which is most important, but they were also movies seen by normal people, and were also – for the most part – recognized by the Academy Awards. This was the norm in the 90s and parts of the 2000s and finally happened again. When Oppenheimer wins Best Picture tonight (oh yeah, if you didn’t know, Oppenheimer is going to win Best Picture tonight around 1030pm) it’ll be the first winner since Lord of the Rings to be one of the top 10 grossing movies of the year. And it’s not just popular, it’s legitimately a great movie, a surefire instant classic.
I’m burdened with a compulsion to keep watching films yet unseen, so only about 10% of the 300 movies I watch a year are rewatches. But I suspect I’ll make time over the next decade to rewatch several from this past year. I’ve already seen 3 of the year’s top films twice and plan to watch most of the Best Picture 10 again with my wife, Rachel, over the next few months.
So what should we expect for the Oscars tonight? It was the year of Barbenheimer and that’s how the nominations played out. But Barbie will be politely clapping from the audience while the Oppenheimers are going to get their steps in going to-and-fro the stage all night. Oppenheimer will win 7-9 Oscars, which sounds sort of dull but it’s hard to deny any individual achievement. Even where Oppie is not my first choice, it’s never less than third. (I have a person bias against awarding historical recreations for production design and costumes and for biopic performances as a whole, for instance). Barbie fans will be disappointed, for sure, but 7 months ago just getting nominated was seen as a major achievement for a movie like Barbie. And it still is. And if it’s not, they can wipe away their tears with thousand dollar bills.
A lot of races are locked up. There are 20 feature film categories and 3 short film categories and I feel good about 17 of them. Animated short, doc short, production design, costumes, visual effects could different ways. And the most exciting race of the night is Best Actress. Lily Gladstone is the slight favorite (in a film I didn’t care for, Killers of the Flower Moon). I’ll be pulling heavily for Emma Stone (in a film I love, the very strange Poor Things). It’s hard to discuss this race without sounding either racist or patronizing, so I’ll move on!
Ten movies were nominated for Best Picture and nine* of them range from very good to great. It’s a cool slate of nominees, with the top 2 grossing movies of the year, two foreign films, and a couple of comedies included. My top film of the year, Past Lives, has absolutely zero chance of winning, so it’s okay if your favorite film of the year doesn’t either. *the 10th film nominated was the extremely disappointing Maestro.
So here are my final and formal predictions. Please don’t bet on this. [Circled are my predictions, starred are my personal votes if I was given one]