Oscars Predictions 2022: The Good, the Bad and the Belfast

The 2022 Oscars, celebrating movies from 2021, airs this Sunday on ABC, which seems ridiculous because we’re already 23% of the way through 2022. The Oscars should be the week before the Super Bowl, when there’s no NFL on and the previous year’s films are still fresh on people’s minds. After all, it’s possible I’ve already seen a couple of films that might be nominated for next year’s ceremony.

This is a decent crop of nominees, as far as the Academy goes. Quality aside, it’s not all stuffy prestige dramas up for awards. There’s an epic sci-fi, a sports movie, musicals, a comedy, and multiple foreign films. Of course there’s also several biopics, a remake of a prior Best Picture winner, a Shakespeare adaptation and movies about how important the director’s childhood was. So it’s still the Oscars. A little for me, a little for them. But mostly I’m happy with the nominations because Dune, the best movie of 2021 was nominated not only for Best Picture, but for 10 total awards. And there’s a little quirk about me that is relevant to this Oscar season: when there’s a movie I really like in a genre I generally hate, then I often love that movie. There was La La Land 5 years ago and this year there is The Power of the Dog, likely my favorite Western ever made (which isn’t saying much, because most Westerns are boring boring boring). So anything Dune or PotD win will be a good, enduring win. And any loss Belfast suffers will be a good loss, as it’s possibly the worst film nominated for Best Picture in the last decade.

Acting wise, it’s a mixed bag. A general rule of thumb for me is that original performances should win over people imitating a real life person. The more famous the real life person was, the less I care about the performance. Learning to talk like Lucille Ball isn’t as impressive as creating a brand new 27 year old girl having an existential crisis and bringing her to life. So with one exception, I will be rooting for original characters over makeup imitations this weekend. There are a couple of career-achievement wins expected and I won’t be upset to see Will Smith and Jessica Chastain onstage. I also wouldn’t personally be voting for either of them. Sadly, my personal favorite performance in each category were not nominated, which will dampen the sting at least. (Alana Haim, Simon Rex, Ruth Negga, and Mike Faist).

If you follow the precursors (which you don’t), a lot of the 23 categories are fairly predictable. This year is a bit exciting in that Best Picture is a tight race. It will almost certainly be either CODA or Power of the Dog, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Belfast win and a couple others could somehow find themselves getting votes due to the slightly confusing preferential ballot used for this one category. I confidently expect Dune to get the most wins of the night (5), so the smallest (and dumbest) part of me thinks it has a shot.

I don’t know what to expect of the show itself as a show. They are awarding 8 of the 23 categories before the TV show starts and are supposedly airing their speeches during the regular broadcast. This isn’t a great move and I doubt it will feel like they really won an Oscar at the Oscars, as they all deserve. But the producers want the show to be less than 3 hours, so we’ll see. Amy Schumer, Regina Hall and Wanda Sykes are hosting this year, which is information I don’t mind but this also barely triggers a response for me. I hope they’re good, but I don’t really care. I’m watching to see the speeches.

Here’s how’d I rank the Best Picture nominees, in order of my preference:

1. Dune
2. The Power of the Dog
3. Licorice Pizza
4. King Richard
5. Drive My Car
6. CODA
7. Don’t Look Up
8. West Side Story
9. Nightmare Alley
10. Belfast

Now onto the winners. I’ve seen every movie nominated, so I could write a novella about each category, but I’ll settle for marking in red my prediction and in blue to the right with my personal vote, if I had one.

Phantom Thread (2017) – What if Hitchcock directed Project Runway?

Directed by the GOAT Paul Thomas Anderson, starring Daniel Day-Lewis, Vicky Krieps, and Leslie Manville.

Venue: Alone in the theater with not enough other people, 4 hours after my childhood dog died.

Vague thoughts: What a movie. Anderson is the best, because he knows exactly how every moment in the movie is going to be perceived by the audience, or at least by me. About an hour in, I thought “okay this is pretty good, but I can tell where it’s going and, meh, I expected more.” Well it’s nice to be wrong sometimes. If you saw where this was going, there’s either something wrong with you or you’re secretly Maya Rudolph. The last 20 minutes of this movie are electric. I’m very lazy, and I was leaning forward, literally on the edge of my seat. Literally everything about this movie is great, all 3 performances, the music (Radiohead sorta has an Oscar nomination now), the costumes (of course), even the runtime. The movie is oddly funny and oddly romantic, in probably the worst ways. It’s a slow burn, so stick it out.

Spoiler-y thoughts: Who would thought two of my favorite movies this year would have poison mushrooms as integral plot points? I worry a lot of people won’t care for this movie because both main characters turn out to be sort of crappy people. But the movie is about the power struggle within relationships and shows a different side of love. Sure, it’s pretty demented near the end, but man is it exciting (eh exciting is not exactly the right word, but close enough). I haven’t thought about a movie this much after seeing in a long long time (maybe Blade Runner 2, but for different reasons). I’ll definitely need to watch this again to fully grasp all of the Münchausen syndrome aspects of the relationship, and I can’t wait. This movie gets compared to Rebecca (1940) quite a bit, so I recommend seeing that too if you like this sorta thing; that’s a top 5 Hitchcock for me.

One good thing: (small spoiler) When they tell Cyril that Woodcock fell and ripped fabric, they brush off the fall and concentrate on describing the fabric. It’s so funny and such a great example of how this family views fashion. Also, everything else.

One bad thing: The first 10 minutes didn’t grip me. So there’s that.

Should you care? Yes, please care. This is my favorite director, dead or alive. I love this movie. But it’s not a standard drama. It’s probably not for everyone. Oh well. But yes, please care.

86/100

Call Me By Your Name (2017) – A trope-less coming of age story

Starring the excellent Timothee Chalomet and Armie Hammer, supported by Michael Stulhbarg, someone everyone needs to learn about.

Venue: Undistracted alone in a sparsely filled theater.

Quick thoughts: I saw this a week ago, and I like it more and more as time goes by. There’s a sweetness to the story, the performances, and the style that are just infectious. It’s quite sad, of course, but it’s pleasant and appealing. I’ve never been to 1983 northern Italy, but I’m now nostalgic about it, whatever that means. My favorite non-obvious aspect of this movie is that it leans toward standard coming-of-age tropes but then avoids them. Elio is doing something questionable in his room, I bet he gets caught and it’s awkward but a growing experience. Nope, he gets away with it, and isn’t that a growing experience all on its own? As my wife can tell you, I absolutely hate when a movie is on-the-nose, and this movie is all about the subtlety. Do the parents know? Do they care? What aspect do they care about? I think I know, but like in life, I don’t really know. The movie sits really well. Armie Hammer was excellent, don’t blame him for being charming and good looking. As everyone else has noted, the last bit with the dad is Amazing. Autocorrect put a capital A there, and I’m keeping it. Amazing.

Spoiler-y thoughts: I felt bad because I visibly cringed a lot in the theater. Anyone watching probably thought I didn’t like the gay stuff, but the germ-avoider in me couldn’t handle how unsanitary a few scenes are. I’m all about expressing yourself, but don’t treat food that way. That’s not what fruit is meant for. I get it, but I don’t approve. It’s gross, but teenagers are gross. Anyway. All the characters were handled really well, you could see how secretly supportive the Mom was, and I felt so bad for the girlfriend. It’s not your fault Marzia. You can’t compete with gay Armie Hammer.

One good thing: great pacing. The movie takes its time getting to the meat of the story, and is all the better what the first half sets up.

One bad thing: there’s no way Armie Hammer was 24 in this movie. The situation seems a little less creepy when you realize he’s 24. And the first Sufjan Stevens song is good but so out of place.

Should you care? Probably. It’s rightfully up for big Oscars, Timothee Chalamet might become a star after this and Lady Bird, and it’s simply a good movie. It’s stuff you’ve sort of seen before, but not like this.

83/100